Counter Insurgency Rarely Works

Afghanistan War

The figures now trickling out showing the facts of our failing war in Afghanistan, are predictable. They follow closely the pattern of most all previous counter insurgency operations in world history.

All anyone has to do is read Robert Ardrey's "Territorial Imperative," study some history, or have some common sense. Our bloody effort in Vietnam was a substantial failure, as are nearly all such counter insurgency wars in history. Even our Indian extermination wars didn’t work very well. Notice the Indians are still here, and still causing us considerable costs and trouble.

Has anyone in the  Pentagon ever heard of the phenomena of "Home Field Advantage" in sports? The lesson it teaches is it can be pretty hard to beat someone on his own home turf, UNLESS, of course, you are willing to kill every man, woman and child in the occupied nation. But, few in the Pentagon would have the stomach or that kind of solution. So that is effectively off the table. 

Amazingly, Afghanistan is surrounded by 5 nuclear armed nations, Pakistan, India, China, Russia, and Iran. Most of these nations hate the US, and either oppose our winning there, or are at least ambivalent toward our effort. All of them, in one way or another render encouragement and help to the Taliban in all kinds of ways. None of them see a victory by us to be in their national interest. On top of that, most of the other players in the world feel pretty much the same way. Conspicuously no nation is really enthusiastic about this war, except us. And none have a vested interest in our success, and that includes our very reluctant allies Germany, France and Britain. 

These facts of life are why George Bush, put this Afghan war on a far back burner, and fully intended to keep it there permanently. 

It was only the poorly-informed, politically motivated Obama, who said, Iraq was the wrong war in the wrong place, but Afghanistan was the right war in the right place. Actually, Iraq was much more the right war in the right place, whereas Afghanistan was always the wrong war in the wrong place. We had some pretty good allies in Iraq; and a lot of nations in the neighborhood were assisting and rooting for us. By contrast, we have no real allies, or sympathizers in Afghanistan. And do we really want to encourage a resurgence of militarism in countries like Germany and France, which countries we have fought several wars with?

The only way to win in Afghanistan is to get our as fast as we can, and let the Taliban have it. It is worth next to nothing to us anyway.